GMAT作文的分析（四）

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　　4、The following appeared in an announcement issued by the publisher of The Mercury, a weekly newspaper:

　　“Since a competing lower-priced newspaper, The Bugle, was started five years ago, The Mercury’s circulation has

　　declined by 10,000 readers. The best way to get more people to read The Mercury is to reduce its price below that of

　　The Bugle, at least until circulation increases to former levels. The increased circulation of The Mercury will attract

　　more businesses to buy advertising space in the paper.”

　　Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.

　　逻辑过程：M报的竞争对手B报定价比M报低，所以吸引了很多读者，导致M报损失了10000个读者。吸引回读者的最好方法是把价格降到B报以下，这样就会有更多读者，也能吸引更多广告商。

　　逻辑漏洞：

　　1 忽略他因：B报更受欢迎不一定是因为它便宜。说不定是因为它写的好，读者爱看。

　　2 错误假设：假设只要价格比B报低，就能吸引更多读者。这个不一定。还有很多因素会起到影响。

　　3 缺少调查：并没有足够的证据表明读者多就一定会有更多广告商。广告商不一定在报纸上做广告啊，可能选择电视，广播，网络……

　　范文：

　　The announcement concludes that the best option for increasing Mercury's circulation to former levels is to lower its price below that of its competitor, The Bugle. This conclusion is based on the fact that since The Bugle was introduced, circulation has declined substantially. This argument is not convincing as the author has made some questionable assumptions that may or may not be true, given the data provided. Firstly, the factors as to why the circulation has declined are unknown, this may not have been related to the introduction of the Bugle at a lower price. Furthermore price is not the only factor taken into consideration by readers when deciding which paper to buy. Finally, the goal of the Mercury is to attract more business to buy advertising space and increased circulation is not necessarily the best way to achieve this goal。

　　First of all, the fact that the Mercury has lost 10,000 readers since The Bugle first appeared on the market five years ago implies nothing. Other factors may have contributed to this decline. For example, it would be correct to say that for the last five years, or more, the information revolution has changed the way that people access information. More and more people are becoming Internet literate and perceive it as a source of free and easily accessible information. News is readily available on the Internet, leading readers away from traditional forms of news such as newspapers. There is no indication in the argument as to whether circulation has been declining even before The Bugle. If so, then it will be apparent that factors, other than The Bugle, have contributed to the poor performance of the paper。

　　Furthermore, the author did not rule out other factors that caused the decreasing circulation. Price may not be the only factor influencing readers whether or not to read a certain newspaper. Consider the following situation. The Bugle is a tabloid newspaper while the Mercury is aimed at a more educated audience. Lowering the price, although this may result in a slight increase in readers, may not attract those readers who prefer tabloid newspapers. This invalidates the assumption that lowering the price of The Mercury will allow circulation to return to former levels。

　　Finally, the newspapers wishes to achieve its ultimate goal of attracting more business, and as a result increasing profits, to buy advertising space it needs to take into consideration the other factors that entice a business to advertise with a newspaper. The newspaper's audience is an obvious example. An educated audience will attract a specific, perhaps more prestigious class of business to advertise at a high price. To lower the price of the newspaper, and in turn risk changing the type of readers that buy the paper, will affect the number, and type, of businesses that are willing to advertise。

　　In sum, the author’s conclusions can not be drawn from the data that has been provided. The Mercury may not be losing readers as a direct result of the introduction of The Bugle. Lowering its price, to below that of The Bugle, may not increase the circulation of The Mercury to former levels or help the paper to achieve its goals of attracting more business to buy advertising space and thus increasing revenues。

　　范文二：

　　The author concludes that since the lower priced newspaper, The Bugle, started five years ago, The Mercury’s circulation has declined sharply. The author’s line of reasoning is that the best way to get people to read The Mercury is to reduce its price below that of another newspaper The Bugle, and the increased circulation of the “The Mercury”, to its former levels, will attract more businesses to buy advertising space. The argument is unconvincing for several reasons.

　　First of all, the author’s line of reasoning the reduction in the price of the newspaper The Mercury will help to increase the circulation to its former levels depends on a questionable assumption that the only reason people switched to The Bugle was its low price. On the contrary, it seems quite reasonable to assume that people were not happy with the content of the news that was published in The Mercury. If this were so, the reduction in the price of The Mercury will not achieve its desired result. The author’s argument should be backed by solid evidence, for example, people might not be satisfied with the service of The Mercury, or The Mercury might have been compromising on the amount of news because of the advertising. Because the author’s argument lacks solid evidence to prove the decline in the sales of The Mercury, it is impossible to assess the persuasiveness of the argument.

　　Secondly, the author assumes that the increased circulation will attract more businesses to buy advertising space in the paper. Again no evidence is given to support this assumption. The author needs to provide solid evidence that businesses are not willing to advertise in The Mercury because of reduction in sales. Admittedly, if The Bugle, has offered down to earth prices to the businesses, The Mercury will not be able to get the businesses even if The Mercury sales increase to its former level.

　　In conclusion, the argument is unconvincing as it stands. The author has to provide solid evidence to prove that price is the only that has caused a decline in sales of The Mercury newspaper. Without this evidence the argument lacks several key issues that could make the argument more thorough and convincing.

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