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GMAT作文的分析（十一）

2015-01-30 12:12:06来源：网络

　　新东方在线为大家精心整理了GMAT作文的分析的相关内容，分享给大家，供大家参考，希望对大家有所帮助!

　　11.“In the first four years that Montoya has served as mayor of the city of San Perdito, the population has decreased and the unemployment rate has increased. Two businesses have closed for each new business that has opened. Under Varro, who served as mayor for four years before Montoya, the unemployment rate decreased and the population increased. Clearly, the residents of San Perdito would be best served if they voted Montoya out of office and reelected Varro.”

　　逻辑思路：

　　新来的Montoya市长上任4年间，失业率上升同事人口数量减小。反驳原因有两条：1，新市长带领下每新兴一个business就会关闭两个business。2，原来的市长Varro在任期间，没有出现这些状况，一比较，得出要现在的Montoya市长下台然后换上原来的Varro市长。这些状况就会得到解决。

　　逻辑漏洞：

　　1. 新市长Montoya执政期间与高失业率和人口骤减情况没有直接的因果关系，有可能有其他的原因造成。除此外，上一任Varro市长的政策弊端在下一任新市长执行期间显现出来。并不能因此就断定上一任varro市长的执行政策更好

　　2. 每个新行业的兴起于两个旧行业的关闭没有直接联系，除此外新行业的经营效果是否就一定比原有的两个旧行业经营效果差，文中没有直接表明

　　Sample:

　　The recommendation endorsed in this argument is that residents of San Perdito vote current mayor Montoya out of office, and re-elect former mayor Varro. The reasons cited are that during Montoya’s four years in office the population has decreased while unemployment has increased, whereas during Varro’s term unemployment declined while the population grew. This argument involves the sort of gross oversimplification and emotional appeal typical of political rhetoric; for this reason it is unconvincing.

　　First of all, the author assumes that the Montoya administration caused the unemployment in San Perdito as well as its population loss. The line of reasoning is that because Montoya was elected before the rise in unemployment and the decline in population, the former event caused the latter. But this is fallacious reasoning unless other possible causal explanations have been considered and ruled out. For example, perhaps a statewide or nationwide recession is the cause of these events. Or perhaps the current economic downturn is part of a larger picture of economic cycles and trends, and has nothing to do with who happens to be mayor. Yet another possibility is that Varro enjoyed a period of economic stability and Varro’s own administration set the stage for the unemployment and the decline in population the city is now experiencing under Montoya.

　　Secondly, it is not sufficient to prove that Montoya’s bad policy by the reason that one new business start costs two businesses close. In this argument, no data shows that one new business would employ fewer people that total two businesses would. Besides that, the new business which was supported by Montoya’s policy in the fist four years will expand into different businesses fields. The forecast would improve the unemployment situation and attract more people would make the final decisions to live in the San Perdito. Under this, the population will increase correspondingly.

　　In conclusion, I would not cast my vote for Varro on the basis of this weak argument. The author must provide support for the assumption that Mayor Montoya has caused San Perdito’s poor economy. Moreover, such support would have to involve examining and eliminating other possible causal factors. Only with more convincing data and facts could this argument become more than an rational situation that the one business would be harmful by costing two old businesses.

　　以上就是新东方在线为大家总结的2015年GMAT作文的分析的相关内容，希望对大家有所帮助，最后预祝大家在GMAT考试中取得优异的成绩!

　　---本文节选自新东方在线论坛


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